Friday, October 10, 2014

(Microsoft Excel problem). Wayne Banker is in charge of planning water usage for agriculturally...

(Microsoft Excel problem). Wayne Banker is in charge of planning water usage for agriculturally intensive Burke County. August is the peak month of water usage for Burke County. Wayne has collected the following statistics from the past 15 years, showing the total March–June rainfall (in inches), average daily high temperature in July, and number of acre-feet of water used in August by farms in the area. Wayne wants to know if he can predict how much water will be needed in August, given the March–June rainfall and July temperature data.

Use Excel’s regression function to develop a multiple regression forecast for Wayne. What is the R2 for the model? Use the model to forecast water usage for 1990–2004. Calculate the MFE and MAD for the model. In your opinion, how good is the model?

YEAR

INCHES OF

RAINFALL,

MARCH–JUNE

AVERAGE

PEAK

DAILY

TEMPERATURE,

JULY

ACRE-FEET

OF WATER

USED,AUGUST

1995

11.7

71.0

31,500

1996

10.0

87.4

35,500

1997

13.3

91.4

35,800

1998

8.4

98.3

69,700

1999

14.9

99.6

48,100

2000

10.0

91.7

53,700

2001

12.6

91.6

40,300

2002

10.6

81.5

32,600

2003

7.1

77.0

34,100

2004

11.3

83.9

36,800

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